That is a graph of actual scale readings over 18 days while carefully tracking food and exercise through MyFitnessPal to make sure that the “net calories under weekly goal” stayed in a range that was right for this client. That depends on lots of things, like your stress levels, hydration, sleep, and alcohol consumption. (This is not a perfect science, nor is food and exercise tracking, so don’t get numerically obsessed.) If, between a combination of eating sufficiently and exercising enough, you come in under 3500 calories for the week, you are in range to see the scale shuffle slowly downward at some point in the near future. There are, for all intents and purposes, 3500 calories in a pound.

If that number is very small or very large, you are probably either staying the same or slowly gaining weight. If that number is negative, you are probably gaining weight.

If that number is between 20, you can reasonably expect to be losing weight (and it will probably be bodyfat, too, rather than muscle). The calories you expend living every day of the week (breathing, sleeping, blinking, thinking, picking up around the house, walking to and from the car in the parking lot…) AND the calories you burned through intentional exercise. The total number of calories you consumed during the week, minus If you are honestly and thoroughly tracking your exercise and food in MyFitnessPal and you have your goal intake correctly set to reflect your BMR and activity level (NOT the default value that the app fills in), this one number can honestly tell you whether or not you are likely to lose weight:

Lose it vs mfp